Bandwagon effect
The bandwagon effect is the observation that people often do (or believe) things because many other people do (or believe) the same. The effect is often pejoratively referred to as herding instinct, particularly as applied to adolescents. Without examining the merits of the particular thing, people tend to “follow the crowd”. The bandwagon effect is the reason for the bandwagon fallacy's success. Origin of the Phrase Literally, a bandwagon is a wagon which carries the band in a parade, circus or other entertainment. The phrase 'jump on the bandwagon' was first used in American Politics in 1848 as a result of Dan Rice, 'President Lincoln's Court Jester. Campaigning for Zachary Taylor, Dan Rice, a professional circus clown, used his bandwagon for Taylor's appearances, gaining attention by way of the music. As Taylor's campaign became more successful, more politicians strove for a seat on the bandwagon, hoping to be associated with the success. Later, during the time of William Jennings Bryan's 1900 presidential campaign, bandwagons had become a standard fixture of campaigns, and 'jump on the bandwagon' was used as a derogatory term, implying that people were associating themselves with the success without considering what they associated themselves with. Use in Politics The bandwagon effect can be observed in voting: some people vote for those candidates or parties who are likely to succeed (or are proclaimed as such by the media), thus increasing their chances of being on the 'winner's side' in the end. Bandwagon effect has been labeled to situations involving majority opinion, such as political outcomes, where people alter their opinions to the majority view (McAllister and Studlar 721). During elections, poll results are broadcasted in the eastern parts of the United States while polls are still open in the west. Due to this trend, behavior of voters in western United States has been previously investigated. In 1980, NBC News declared Ronald Reagan to be the winner of the presidential race on the basis of the exit polls several hours before the voting booths closed in the west, which led Reagan to defeat his Democratic opponent Jimmy Carter (McAllister and Studlar 721, 722). Several studies have been done in order to test this theory of how the bandwagon effect and politics tie together. In 1994, a study was done by Robert K. Goidel and Todd G. Shields, which was published in The Journal of Politics. At the University of Kentucky, 180 students were randomly assigned to nine groups where they were asked questions about certain election scenarios. The scenarios presented to each group were identical, although about 70% of subjects received knowledge concerning the expected winner (Goidel and Shields 807). Independents, which are those who do not vote based on the endorsement of any party and are ultimately neutral, were extremely influenced and tended to lean towards the person expected to win (Goidel and Shields 807-808). Expectations played a significant role throughout the study. It was found that independents are twice as likely to vote for the Republican candidate when the Republican is expected to win. From the results, it was also found that when the Democrat was expected to win, independent Republicans and weak Republicans were more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate (Goidel and Shields 808). A study by Albert Mehrabian, Ph.D., reported in The Journal of Applied Social Psychology (1998), tested the relative importance of the bandwagon (rally around the winner) effect versus the underdog (empathic support for those trailing) effect. Bogus poll results presented to voters prior to the 1996 Republican primary clearly showed the bandwagon effect to predominate on balance. Indeed, approximately 6% of the variance in the vote was explained in terms of the bogus polls, showing that poll results (whether accurate or inaccurate) can significantly influence election results in closely-contested elections. In particular, assuming that one candidate "is an initial favorite by a slim margin, reports of polls showing that candidate as the leader in the race will increase his or her favorable margin" (Mehrabian, 1998, p. 2128). Thus, as poll results are repeatedly reported, the bandwagon effect will tend to snowball and become a powerful aid to leading candidates. During the 1992 U.S. presidential election, Vicki G. Morwitz and Carol Pluzinski conducted a study, which was published in The Journal of Consumer Research. At a large northeastern university, 214 volunteered business students were given actual student poll results that had been done from the previous week. Of the 214 volunteers, 188 were U.S. citizens. Comparable results were also given to them from a large-scale national poll. Both the student and the national polls indicated that Clinton was in the lead for the majority of the study. Ninety-six subjects were randomly assigned to the poll-exposure condition, which meant they were given a summary of the results from both the student polls and the recently published national poll. The remaining 92 subjects were assigned to the no-exposure condition, meaning none of the polls were revealed to these subjects. The analysis of the study was limited to Bush and Clinton supporters, due to the lack of Perot supporters. It was found that several of those exposed to the polls changed their preference. Since the polls indicated that Clinton was ahead in the election, many Bush intenders ended up changing their preferences after reviewing the polls. The proportion of Bush intenders who expected Clinton to win was lower with exposure to polls (78.6 percent) compared to those not exposed to the polls (93.8 percent). This means that the number of subjects who were planning on voting for Bush actually changed their minds,compared to the 93.8 percent that actually voted for him without being shown the student and national polls. It proves that those who had intended on voting for Bush had altered opinions of the election due to exposure of the polls (Morwitz and Pluzinski 58-64). Internationally, British polls have shown an increase to public exposure. Sixty-eight percent of voters had heard of the general election campaign results of the opinion poll in 1979. In 1987, this number of voters aware of the results increased to 74% (McAllister and Studlar 725). According to British studies, there is a consistent pattern of apparent bandwagon effects for the leading party. Use in Microeconomics In microeconomics, bandwagon effect is a term for an interaction of demand and preference.Harvey Leibenstein, “Bandwagon, Snob, and Veblen Effects in the Theory of Consumers’ Demand,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics (May 1950). The bandwagon effect arises when people's preference for a commodity increases as the number of people buying it increases. This interaction potentially disturbs the normal results of the theory of supply and demand, which assumes that consumers make buying decisions solely based on price and their own personal preference. See network effect and Veblen good. Use in the Music Industry In music, bandwagon effect is a term for people who are fond of a musical group based on how popular the artist is at the time. For instance, certain people appreciate a song only once it is well-known. Use in Sports In sports, bandwagon effect is a term for people who begin flocking to a team after they have achieved success. The Ottawa Senators are an NHL franchise in Eastern Ontario that became popular only following the mid-1990s decline of more traditional teams Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens. Citizens jump on the Senators bandwagon, including non-hockey fans, whenever the Sens win a playoff series. When the Senators fail to advance in the playoffs and then 'fans' jump off the bandwagon, and either return to their original teams or forget about hockey altogether. References Goidel, Robert K., and Todd G. Shields. "The Vanishing Marginals, the Bandwagon, and the Mass Media." The Journal of Politics 56 (1994): 802-810. 11 Apr. 2007 . McAllister, Ian, and Donley T. Studlar. "Bandwagon, Underdog, or Projection? Opinion Polls and Electoral Choice in Britain, 1979-1987." The Journal of Politics 53 (1991): 720-740. 9 Apr. 2007 . Mehrabian, Albert. "Effects of Poll Reports on Voter Preferences." Journal of Applied Social Psychology 28 (1998): 2119-2130. 11 Apr. 2007 . Morwitz, Vicki G., and Carol Pluzinski. "Do Polls Reflect Opinions or Do Opinions Reflect Polls?" Journal of Consumer Research os 23 (1996): 53-65. 8 Apr. 2007 . See also *Bandwagon *Bandwagoning *Collective behavior *Collective consciousness *Collective effervescence *Collective intelligence *Communal reinforcement *Conformism *Crowd psychology *Group behaviour *Herd behavior *Keeping up with the Joneses *List of cognitive biases *Me too *Meme *Network effect *Ochlocracy (commonly referred to as "mob rule") *Peer pressure *Sheeple *Social comparison theory *Spiral of silence *University of Southern California *Veblen good Category:Cognitive biases Category:Metaphors Category:Economics effects Category:Propaganda techniques Category:Crowd psychology de:Mitläufer it:Effetto carrozzone ja:バンドワゴン効果 pl:Zasada podczepienia zh:從眾效應